Market Update: Cambie Corridor Land Values
Below is a brief update to a previous analysis of land sales along the Cambie Corridor that was originally posted last year. The most recent project to launch pre-sales is The Regent by Regent International on the North side of West King Edward, which launched in July 2016, and having substantially sold out at over $1,000 per SF. Fully 13 of the first 15 projects to launch pre-sales since 2012 have sold out quite quickly and steadily increasing prices.
As one of the most consistently strong pre-sales markets in Metro Vancouver, land values are continuing to increase as developers are bidding more aggressively to reflect end-sales demand.
Up and down the Corridor, numerous land assemblies have occurred, with many rezoning applications at various stages of the process. Almost 20 sites have now had rezoning enacted; meaning they have been officially approved by the City, and over one-third of the 439 lots in the plan area have now been sold.
The following chart depicts all of the site/land assembly sales that have taken place within the plan area since 2009. As recently as 2014, land sales averaged $175-200 per buildable SF. Today, land values have escalated to as high as $250-300 per buildable SF, and a couple of sites have actually traded above the $300 per buildable SF threshold.
* based on approved density, or plan maximum where no application exists yet.
The strength of the Cambie land market is not entirely surprising given the strong pre-sales trends and given that land on the Westside with exisitng zoning for multifamily is now regularly trading above $400 per buildable SF.
Good graph.
We are and have been actively canvassing the Cambie market to acquire land.. Our perception is that for sites north of 41st it will take $320 plus a foot to do a deal.
We think values are less on the south slope.
If you put land at $320, miscellaneous at $260 (CAC, DCC, Interest, Consultants, Marketing, Taxes, Insurance etc.), and construction at $310, you get to $890/ft. Should accordingly look to sell at $1,100 we think. And based on our Grayson sales ($1,100), this is current market north of 41st.
Where did the sales occur at close to $350/ft?