Of course for most involved in the Vancouver commercial real estate industry since the NDP were last in power, the answer is a resounding “yes!”, but what will the real impact be on the market in Vancouver if there is a change in government and Adrian Dix and the B.C. NDP are elected on May 14, 2013? To answer that question one needs look back to the 90’s…

Firstly, for those who don’t follow provincial politics, there is an election less than 90 days away. The governing Liberal party, led by Christy Clark, has been in power since 2001, and most polls conducted since the HST fiasco of 2011, have shown support for the Liberals below 30%. The latest polls show the NDP lead hovering around 15%, a lead that is generally viewed as insurmountable by political experts, and much of the commentary has already moved on to discuss how Adrian Dix will implement policy change.

Source: BC Election 2013 Blog

An informal poll of real estate industry experts yields similar commentary about the ‘doom and gloom’ of the Glen Clark led NDP of the 90’s, a period in which B.C. became a ‘have-not’ province and more people were leaving B.C. than coming. Since 2001 when the Liberals took power, Vancouver has gone on an incredible run.

While much of the influence has been due to external forces outside the province, a look at some market indicators yields some interesting observations and shows the contrast between each party’s stay in power. Each chart has been divided to show the two parties’ terms in power (since 1995), as follows:

Cap Rates

Capitalization rates take into account many more external factors (federal interest rates, for example), and have shown compression in other markets in Canada, but Vancouver has witnessed cap rates drop moreso than others amid continued strength in the local and provincial economy since the early 2000’s.

Housing Starts

Developers will appreciate this one. After a stagnant housing market in the late 90’s, construction in Vancouver (and B.C.) went on an unprecedented run between 2002 and 2008 shortly after Gordon Campbell was elected in 2001. Of course, the global downturn in 2008/2009 put the brakes on the market, but it has bounced back relatively well despite recent forecasts of a prolonged slowdown (perhaps due to lack of confidence and risk in the provincial outlook for 2014 and beyond?)

Source: Statistics Canada

Office Vacancy Rates and Rents

Many will remember a period in the early 2000’s when new office construction wasn’t a topic of conversation in the local commercial real estate industry. In fact, confidence was so bad in 2002 with the vacancy rate hovering around 15% that Bentall decided to halt construction of Bentall 5, now one of Vancouver’s most valuable towers, at half of its height and wait for the office market to improve.

Of course, the office market has always been cyclical irrespective of the political climate. It is largely impacted by macroeconomic factors; however, a look at the Downtown Vancouver office market in terms of rents and vacancy from 1995 to 2013 shows some marked contrast between the NDP and Liberal’s reign on the province.

A Market Forecast  Under Adrian Dix?

While we won’t go so far as to suggest that there will be any immediate negative impact as a result of an NDP government getting elected, there is obvious reason to be concerned about the economy moving forward, and not just because of the NDP’s awful track record when it comes to the economy. The most immediate impact could be increased vacancy among Vancouver’s retail, office and industrial buildings, with a prolonged period of flat rents to follow. If the NDP’s policies follow their traditional model, the economic picture could become cloudy and an attendant decline in such metrics as population, employment, housing starts and retail sales will all negatively impact every facet of Vancouver investment and development activity.

And that could just be Dix’s first term….

After multiple offers were received late last year, it has been learned that bcIMC has been the successful purchaser of the 2.98 acre Canada Post site located at Homer and Georgia Streets in Downtown Vancouver. Udpate: the purchase price was $159 Million.

Here is the press release from bcIMC:

“bcIMC is pleased to confirm that we have purchased the Canada Post site at 349 West Georgia, a 2.98 acre city block in downtown Vancouver from Canada Post.

We see the Canada Post site as a long-term investment that provides a unique opportunity for a large-scale mixed-use development in a desirable and strategic location in downtown Vancouver. The purchase of this property is consistent with our strategy to invest in prime real estate with the potential to provide steady and attractive long-term returns for our pension plan clients.

A redevelopment of this scale requires extensive and careful planning. Redevelopment will commence once sufficient planning has been completed, required approvals have been received and market conditions support it. We look forward to working with the City of Vancouver as we move forward with our planning.

bcIMC is one of Canada’s largest institutional investment managers and is responsible for investing the assets of public sector pension plans within British Columbia. bcIMC invests more than $95-billion of managed gross assets. bcIMC has a long and successful track record of property ownership and real estate development.”

As 2012 wraps up, we’ve summarized the top deals of 2012 by total dollar value. While a number of $100M+ assets traded in 2011, 2012 has been a comparatively quieter year, with only one true core/trophy property sold – that being Bentall 5. The downtown Canada Post property, offered for sale in late 2012, will probably fetch over $100M when it closes sometime in 2013.

1. Bentall 5    Bentall Kennedy, acquired this premier ‘AAA’ class office building in May for a record $400 Million, representing $686 per sq ft, and a cap rate below 5%. The Vendor in the transaction, the German bank Deka Immobilien GmbH, had purchased the tower just three years ago for $297 Million. The acquisition by Bentall Kennedy re-affirms their confidence in the Downtown Vancouver office market.

2. Plaza 88 Retail    First Capital Realty acquired the retail component of the Plaza at New Westminster in May 2012 for $97,000,000, or $500 per SF.  The property consists of 194,000 square feet of gross leaseable area and a 422 stall paid parking garage.  The project is fully integrated with Skytrain and a bus terminal.  Tenants include Safeway, Landmark Theatres, Shoppers Drug Mart, Dollar Tree, CIBC, RBC, Starbucks and A&W.

3. Lougheed Village   The largest apartment deal done in 2012 was a large concrete highrise complex in Burnaby next to Lougheed Mall. The 548-unit complex sold in April for $90,000,000, or $165,000 per unit. Comprised of two 24-storey towers and two 8-storey lowrises, the sale is one of the largest apartment sales in Vancouver history, behind only that of Beach Towers and Langara Gardens in 2010. The buyer was Mayfair Properties.

4. Pacific Point  Bosa Development acquired this 227-unit strata building located in Downtown Vancouver in June 2012 for $79,000,000. The 20-year old project includes two phases over a common podium and is stratified but has been operated as a rental building since completion. It includes 11 commercial units on the ground floor. The building had been listed for sale by the Vendor, Concert Properties. The price per unit is approximately $350,000.

5. 401 West Georgia    Canada Pension Plan Investment Board acquired a 50% stake in this A Class office building at West Georgia and Homer Street in March 2012 for $63,000,000, or $467 per SF for, representing a 5.1% cap rate.

Standard Life capitalises on Canada’s property ‘bubble’ – Banking – Scotsman.com.

“INSURANCE giant Standard Life has raised £65 million by selling two commercial properties in Canada, where critics have suggested the market is in the grip of a bubble.

Another innovative architectural design will soon be dotting Surrey’s cityscape with plans to build a new Coast Capital Savings head office to be located next to the King George Skytrain Station.

B.C.’s second largest credit union has signed a contract with PCI Developments Corp. for the construction and leasing of about 70 per cent of the approximately 180,000 square foot, nine-story property, with a targeted late 2015 completion date. Coast Capital’s “Help Headquarters”, as the new head office will be known, will join buildings like the Central City Tower and City Centre Library that have established Surrey as the home for some of the province’s most groundbreaking modern architecture and an attractive location for businesses.

Read more at Newswire: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1091297/coast-capital-s-new-head-office-to-boost-surrey-city-centre-revitalization