The City of Vancouver will present their third annual Housing and Homelessness Strategy Report Card to council next week. The purpose of the annual report is to track progress of the City’s various initiatives under the Housing and Homelessness Strategy 2012-2021.

The report is an excellent source of some key housing indicators compiled from CMHC and REBGV, of which several are summarized here:

• the City of Vancouver had 4,648 dwellings commence construction in 2014 (approximately 25% single family and 75% multi-family units). This rate is close to the 5-year annual average of 4,824.
• Vacancy rates continued to decrease between 2013 and 2014, both in the city of
  Vancouver (from 1.0% to 0.5%) and regionally (from 1.7% to 1.0%) reflecting
  ongoing population growth and demand for housing
• Between March 2014 and March 2015, the benchmark  price for a single family

  house increased by 14% on the eastside and 12% on the westside, while the

  benchmark price for condos fell by 1% on the eastside and increased by 5% on

  the westside.
• 409 units of interim supportive housing were created in 2014 (395 Kingsway, 3475 E. Hastings, 1335 Howe and 1060 Howe)
• 439 units of permanent supportive housing were created (1134 Burrard, 111 Princess, 2465 Fraser and 951 Boundary)
• 3,783 secured market rental units have been approved during 2012-2014 (only 407 were actually completed in 2014)

With the news today that St. Paul’s will move to it’s new location, it has been indicated that Providence Health Care will use the sale or lease of the existing Burrard Street location to help contribute to its share of the $1.2 Billion False Creek Flats project.

So how much is the Burrard site worth?

First, an overview of the site:

• Site Area: 292,235 SF, or 6.7 acres
• Existing Zoning: DD – Downtown District (Sub Area G)
• Permitted Density: 6.0 FSR (office not to exceed 5.0 FSR), or 1,753,410 SF (under current zoning)
• Allowable Height: 300 ft (with discretionary increase to 450 ft)
• View Cones: View cone C1 (Laurel Landbridge to the Lions) bisects the site as depicted below and likely limits much of the site to at or near the 300 ft. limit (30-storeys for residential)
• Current Tax Assessment Value (Land Only): $465,004,000

Rezoning potential is unknown at this stage, but the current zoning would appear to support a residential/mixed-use development up to 1.75 Million SF. A preliminary valuation based on this cursory highest and best use analysis yields the following value:

292,235 SF x 6.0 FSR x $250 per buildable SF =

$438,000,000

Now, if the site were rezoned to say 10.0 FSR, with a Community Amenity Contribution or social housing component:

Based on rezoning to 10.0 FSR

292,235 x 10.0 FSR x ($250 per buildable SF less $75 per SF CAC) =

$511,000,000

Below is a snapshot of the housing price index for East Vancouver and Westside single family homes relative to Westside condos (including downtown). Of note, while average single family house prices in East Vancouver did not experience as much inflation as the Westside did in 2012, recent price gains are now tracking right along with the Westside.

It would be an interesting analysis to determine how much speculation and redevelopment activity is playing into house price increases.

Data source: REBGV HPI