Despite the Bank of Canada’s continued warning that interest rates should rise in the next couple of years, it is now suggesting that a move is “less imminent” due to slower household credit growth. According to BMO: “Modest growth, below-target inflation (0.8% in December), tighter credit rules, easy Fed policy, and a strong loonie argue against a rate hike. We expect the overnight rate to stay at 1% until the spring of 2014, before rising gradually to a more neutral 3½ % in 2016.”  Likewise the bank’s forecast for bond yields is a rise of 100 to 150bps over the next 18-24 months.

This indicates that barring a shock to the system, 5-year money for commercial mortgages will continue to be readily available at near historic lows in the near term, with spreads of 200 to 200 basis points coming in around or under 4.00%.

Source: Bank of Canada

In Metrotown, demand for new condo product appears to have quieted down somewhat over the past several months. But that’s not stopping developers and investors, who are betting on the success of this town centre area over the long-term.

The latest example came in December with sale of 5895 Barker Avenue, a potential tower redevelopment site.

There are now six 35+ storey tower projects under construction in the area, primarily in the RM-5 zone which allows a higher density. These include:

• Metroplace, 343 units by Intracorp.
• The Met, 295 units by Concord Pacific.
• Station Square (Phase 1), 269 units by Anthem/Beedie.
• Silver, 284 units by Intracorp.
• Moda, 249 units by Polygon.
• Sovereign, 202 units, by Bosa.

There are also an additional 2,000+ units in various stages of planning, including an additional 930 units at Station Square (phase 2, consisting of 35 and 57 storey towers) is planned to be released in the near future), as well as other projects planned by Polygon, BlueSky Properties, Boffo, Concord and Intracorp.

A number of apartment buildings that are currently zoned RM-3 have been selling to investors that see upside and future redevelopment potential. See below a list of recent sales. Apartments without immediate redevelopment potential generally trade at $170,000 to $180,000 per unit in this area. RM-5 zoned apartment properties that can be redeveloped as towers often trade for higher values (based on land value).

In addition, Ivanhoe Cambridge is nearing halfway completion of its Metrotower 3, the first new office project built in the area in several years, which speaks to the ongoing potential of the area not solely as a bedroom community.

Metrotown has long been viewed as Burnaby’s true town centre, and despite activity in the other designated ‘town centres’ such as Brentwood and Edmonds. Metrotown is continuing to show strong valuations for both development sites and existing income producing properties.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has released their January 2013 stats. Generally, the market is showing continued signs of slowing, with both listings and sales down from 2012. The sales-to-active-listings ratio is currently at 10.2 per cent, in buyers territory. Some other highlights:

• Sales of condos reached 576 in January 2013, a decline of 12.3% compared to the 657 sales in January 2012, and a decrease of 19.2% compared to the 713 sales in January 2011.
• The total number of properties currently listed for sale  is 13,246, a 5.6% increase compared to January 2012 and a 4.5% decline compared to December 2012. This is the fourth consecutive month that overall home listings have declined.
• Single family prices are down 3.1% year over year (YoY). Vancouver Westside is down 7.5% during the same period.
• Condo prices are down 2.9% YoY. Richmond is down 5.2% during the same period.

Source: REBGV.

Colliers’ Q4 2012 retail report shows that the Metro Vancouver retail leasing market sustained healthy growth heading into 2013. Notable highlights from the Colliers retail report.:

• From a leasing perspective, there was a spike in activity with many international, national and eclectic retailers looking for space. This is evident through the vacancy rate decreasing to 3.5% this quarter from 3.9% in the second quarter of 2012.
• The most notable changes in vacancy were in Squamish decreasing from 7.1 to 3.3 percent; Chilliwack decreasing from 10.9 to 9.3 percent; North Delta decreasing from 5.9 to 3.6 percent; and Richmond decreasing from 6.2 to 4.7 percent.
• Both transactional sales volume and deal velocity maintained a steady pace through the last quarter of 2012. From the fourth quarter of 2011 to the end of the third quarter of 2012, 125 transactions closed in the improved retail property category (for properties valued over $1 million).
• Harbour Centre unveiled plans for a multi-million dollar redevelopment of the landmark Harbour Centre building in Downtown Vancouver. In the spring of 2013, they will embark on an extensive redevelopment of the food court, a refresh of the lower level common area, and a newly revitalized streetscape of the complex.

New Westminster News Leader – Breathing life into New Westminster’s main streets.

Lots of places to eat and drink, few storefronts that aren’t retail oriented, and at least some representation of chain outlets are all signs of successful main streets, according to a university term paper written by a New Westminster councillor.

Along with sitting on council, Jonathan Coté is also an urban studies student at Simon Fraser University, and has written the paper “Reviving New Westminster’s Main Streets,” which looks at what makes a main street work and what New West’s streets need in order to improve.

“New Westminster has a tremendous advantage in that we have traditional main streets already in existence. For most municipalities in the Lower Mainland these don’t exist except in Vancouver. We have the bones in place. The challenge is how do we bring these to life and make sure these are neighbourhoods our residents want to shop in.”

Coté found the highest vacancy rates were on Twelfth Street (11.6 per cent) and East Columbia in Sapperton (11.4), while Columbia in the Downtown area was just 6.4 per cent and Sixth Street was 8.7. The latter two compared favourably to a pair of Vancouver’s most dynamic retail streets, Robson (6.9) and Denman (5.4).

Read more: http://www.newwestnewsleader.com/news/186342442.html