Does Vancouver’s hot investment market make building a better option?.

Consistent demand and high lease values in Vancouver’s downtown office and retail property markets combined with low interest rates continue to fuel a sizzling investment market.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen the investment market this robust, vibrant and strong. We get multiple bids on everything and anything,” says Ross Moore, director of research for CBRE Canada.

A review of resales data for newer condos in Downtown Vancouver (2 years old or less) shows that sales activity has slowed since the beginning of 2012 but pricing has maintained an average around $800 per sq ft.

The vast majority of sales are between $600 and $1,000 per sq ft depending on the building/unit quality and location, with some sales such as units in The Erickson and Fairmon Pacific Rim showing sales values above $2,000 per SF. One can speculate that given a slowdown in sales activity, pricing will be affected eventually, particularly at the lower end of the spectrum where there are competing new developments in presales and/or under construction.

Source: MLS

Commercial mortgage rates continue to remain attractive, supported in large part by bond yields that have continued a downward march. As of Monday July 23rd, the yield on 5-year GOC bonds was 1.12%. Financing options remain available for stronger assets below 3.50% on five year money.

Source: Bank of Canada

Resales of newer woodframe condos on Vancouver’s Westside (including UBC lands) has averaged $715 per sq ft over the past year. Pricing has remained relatively flat and has not shown a decline as of July 2012. University condos, averaging $740 per sq ft over the past year, typically trade at a premium to comparable Westside of Vancouver product, which averaged $677 per sq ft over the same time period. There are currently only a handful of active new woodframe projects on the Westside as sites are difficult to locate for developers.

Source: MLS Stats. (woodframe condo resales less than 10 years old)

With less than 200,000 SF of new office space built since the completion of Bentall 5 in 2007, and a vacancy rate hovering below 5%, there is finally some new supply on the horizon.  Only Jameson House and the Hotel Georgia offices, both commercial strata office space in mixed-use projects have been built since that time, adding approximately 130,000 SF.

In 2014-2015, over 1,000,000 SF will be added to the downtown market with the addition of 745 Thurlow, Telus Garden and MNP Tower (1021 West Hastings).  All three are at varying stages of demolition or excavation.