Intergulf Development Group in conjuction with the owners of the Quality Inn at 1335 Howe Street are proposing a 39 storey, 180 unit residential tower in Downtown South.  The architect for the project is Ramsay Worden.

A preliminary open house for the project was held on April 3 at the Quality Inn. 

Cue outrage from purchasers of suites in Maddox and Salt.

How much longer can values keep going up at this rate? This is a question we are asked all the time, even by savvy and experienced investors who know the Vancouver market well. As we have documented before, there are numerous factors that have driven capitalization rates to an all-time low, many of which are external to the local market.

A trend we have noticed in recent sales however, is that many of the sellers have only held the assets for a few years.

To get a glimpse of what kind of gains these sellers are achieving, we took a look at a handful of sales in each asset class over the past two years. The criteria was as follows:

• Apartment, retail and office properties (5 each) that sold since September 2011 over $5 Million
• Properties that were acquired less than 10 years before they were sold and did not experience significant capital expenditures

From this sample set of 15 sales that took place during this period, the average annual rate of appreciation is displayed below:

Some observations taken from this sample of sales activity:

• Average property was held for 5.5 years and then sold.
• The annual appreciation ranged from 4.4% to 13.1%, and averaged 8.6%.
• Notable resales in this survey included: Bentall 5, which was sold by Deka to Bentall Kennedy after 3 years and 10% gain per year. 2450 Ontario Street sold in February 2013 also after 3 years, and also after a 10% annual gain.
• Note that the above data does not even reflect the overall return to the sellers as it does not incorporate the cash flow component of the return during the holding period. While yields have been driven to all-time lows, cash flow has historically been the bigger component of real estate returns. This should be something for all owners and buyers to think about in Vancouver.

This type of resales activity isn’t unexpected in a market that is continually being inundated with capital and buyers, many of whom are new to the market. Interestingly many of the sellers in the above survey are well-capitalized and don’t need the cash, they are simply selling based upon the view that currently achievable values aren’t sustainable in the near term. Our question is (as echoed by our clients): how long can these types of gains last?

In our view, there will be more assets coming to the market as the risks to the provincial and local economic outlook begin to pressure more owners to cash out and realize gains. In most areas, cap rates have no further room to decrease.

From the Wall Street Journal (Big Players Cash Out of Hong Kong Property), note some of the similarities between the commercial price increases in Vancouver’s market and Hong Kong’s market.

HONG KONG — With the government growing confident that it has halted the meteoric rise in property prices, some of this city’s biggest real-estate investors are getting out.

Several of Hong Kong’s wealthiest families are planning initial public offerings of hotels, offices and other real-estate assets in coming months, while others are lowering prices on luxury apartments to entice buyers.

Fueled by low interest rates and a flood of money from wealthy Chinese, Hong Kong’s real-estate market has boomed, with residential prices up 120% and commercial real-estate prices up 90% since the start of 2008, according to government data.

Among the sellers is New World Development Co. Ltd., a conglomerate run by the Cheng family with interests ranging from hotels to offices to jewelry stores. The family hopes to raise up to $1 billion in an offering of some of its hotel properties, people familiar with the matter said. The company owns the city’s Grand Hyatt and other well-known hotels, but it’s not clear which properties would be included in the offering.

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324789504578384220036108516.html

Nearly a quarter of condos in Vancouver are empty or occupied by non-residents in some dense areas of downtown, a signal that investors play a significant role in the city’s housing market.

And the city overall has a much higher rate of empty apartments and houses than other Canadian cities, with a rate closer to places like New York and San Francisco at the height of their mortgage crisis in 2010.

Downtown, the rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – empty.

That’s the latest discovery that adjunct UBC planning professor Andrew Yan made when he analyzed 2011 census numbers to try to add more information to the contentious debate over whether Vancouver is turning into a high-end resort or offshore investors’ holding tank.

Read more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/vancouvers-vacancies-point-to-investors-not-residents/article10044403/

Developing Story: Pacific Arbour puts Dunbar seniors’ plan on hold.

It could be weeks or months before Pacific Arbour decides whether to submit a revised application to the city for a senior’s facility it hoped to build on property on the east side of the 4600 block of Dunbar Street between 30th and 31st avenues.

Earlier this month, the city rejected its rezoning application to build a six-storey seniors residence south of Stong’s grocery store. City staff cited concerns about affordability and how it fit into the Dunbar Vision Plan, which envisions buildings up to four storeys.

President Peter Gaskill told the Courier Pacific Arbour is not working on a revised application at this time and that, in the company’s opinion, a four-storey building is not financially feasible at current land prices.