How long for the Bank of Canada?
Bank of Nova Scotia economists are now raising the possibility of no move in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate until 2016.

Other observers have speculated on late next year or early in 2015 for the first rate hike by the central bank.

The Bank of Canada’s benchmark overnight rate now stands at just 1 per cent.

“The BoC probably now envisages spare capacity remaining into 2016,” the Scotiabank economists said, adding the central bank now projects hitting its 2-per-cent target for annual inflation in mid-2015.

They believe the Bank of Canada may change that forecast, to an even later date, when [it] meets later this month and also issues its monetary policy report.

Read more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/bank-of-canada-may-not-hike-interest-rates-until-2016-scotiabank/article14675055/

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver have released August residential stats. Sales activity is up significantly over August 2012, while attendant price increases are modest at best. Here are a few highlights:

• Listings were down 8.8% from August 2012
• Sales were up 52.5% in August 2013 compared to August 2012.
• Single family benchmark pricing is up since January 2013 in almost all submarkets (except for secondary submarkets such as Sunshine Coast, Squamish and Bowen Island)
• Average prices are still down since August 2012 – for single family (-2.0%) and condos (-1.1%)

Source: REBGV stats

Richmond office market shows ‘slow but steady’ rebound – Richmond Review.

Richmond’s sky-high office vacancy rate has fallen to a five-year low but remains the highest in the region, according to a new report from Avison Young.

The firm’s Mid-Year 2013 Metro Vancouver Office Market Report pegs the vacancy rate at 17.3 per cent—4.5 per cent less than one year ago—demonstrating the local market’s continued slow recovery.

“Continued tightening of the Richmond vacancy rate remains a good news story for the market, which has seen a slow but steady rebound since 2010,” said Darrell Hurst, Avison Young principal, in a news release.

Surrey’s vacancy rate is close behind, at 16.7 per cent. The lowest rate belongs to downtown Vancouver, at 4.6 per cent, while Metro Vancouver’s average stood at 7.5 per cent after the first six months of 2013.

In its semi-annual survey, Avison Young noted vacancy in the Richmond market is at its lowest point since 2008 after peaking at 24.6 per cent.

Here is a look at the 31 rezoning applications in the City of Vancouver that have not yet been approved. The various applications have been ranked based upon the % increase in density.

[table id=17 /]

Some interesting observations:

• The average proposed % increase in density is 157%. (Average existing density is 2.00 FSR compared to the average proposed density of 4.42 FSR)
• The top 7 proposed increases in density are single family assemblies along the Cambie Corridor.
• Outside the Cambie Corridor, the average % increase is relatively modest, only 98%.
• Of the 31 rezoning apps:
  • 21 are on the Westside of Vancouver, 10 in East Vancouver
  • 14 contain some form of rental housing.
  • 19 will likely require some form of Community Amenity Contribution*
  • 13 propose mid-rise or highrise forms (only 6 outside Downtown)

An analysis of year to date resales for concrete condos less than 3 years old shows that average pricing is approx. $800 per SF.

At 3.1% growth since 2006, average pricing has outpaced inflation, but pricing has been relatively flat in 2013, up less than 1% year over year.