Of course for most involved in the Vancouver commercial real estate industry since the NDP were last in power, the answer is a resounding “yes!”, but what will the real impact be on the market in Vancouver if there is a change in government and Adrian Dix and the B.C. NDP are elected on May 14, 2013? To answer that question one needs look back to the 90’s…

Firstly, for those who don’t follow provincial politics, there is an election less than 90 days away. The governing Liberal party, led by Christy Clark, has been in power since 2001, and most polls conducted since the HST fiasco of 2011, have shown support for the Liberals below 30%. The latest polls show the NDP lead hovering around 15%, a lead that is generally viewed as insurmountable by political experts, and much of the commentary has already moved on to discuss how Adrian Dix will implement policy change.

Source: BC Election 2013 Blog

An informal poll of real estate industry experts yields similar commentary about the ‘doom and gloom’ of the Glen Clark led NDP of the 90’s, a period in which B.C. became a ‘have-not’ province and more people were leaving B.C. than coming. Since 2001 when the Liberals took power, Vancouver has gone on an incredible run.

While much of the influence has been due to external forces outside the province, a look at some market indicators yields some interesting observations and shows the contrast between each party’s stay in power. Each chart has been divided to show the two parties’ terms in power (since 1995), as follows:

Cap Rates

Capitalization rates take into account many more external factors (federal interest rates, for example), and have shown compression in other markets in Canada, but Vancouver has witnessed cap rates drop moreso than others amid continued strength in the local and provincial economy since the early 2000’s.

Housing Starts

Developers will appreciate this one. After a stagnant housing market in the late 90’s, construction in Vancouver (and B.C.) went on an unprecedented run between 2002 and 2008 shortly after Gordon Campbell was elected in 2001. Of course, the global downturn in 2008/2009 put the brakes on the market, but it has bounced back relatively well despite recent forecasts of a prolonged slowdown (perhaps due to lack of confidence and risk in the provincial outlook for 2014 and beyond?)

Source: Statistics Canada

Office Vacancy Rates and Rents

Many will remember a period in the early 2000’s when new office construction wasn’t a topic of conversation in the local commercial real estate industry. In fact, confidence was so bad in 2002 with the vacancy rate hovering around 15% that Bentall decided to halt construction of Bentall 5, now one of Vancouver’s most valuable towers, at half of its height and wait for the office market to improve.

Of course, the office market has always been cyclical irrespective of the political climate. It is largely impacted by macroeconomic factors; however, a look at the Downtown Vancouver office market in terms of rents and vacancy from 1995 to 2013 shows some marked contrast between the NDP and Liberal’s reign on the province.

A Market Forecast  Under Adrian Dix?

While we won’t go so far as to suggest that there will be any immediate negative impact as a result of an NDP government getting elected, there is obvious reason to be concerned about the economy moving forward, and not just because of the NDP’s awful track record when it comes to the economy. The most immediate impact could be increased vacancy among Vancouver’s retail, office and industrial buildings, with a prolonged period of flat rents to follow. If the NDP’s policies follow their traditional model, the economic picture could become cloudy and an attendant decline in such metrics as population, employment, housing starts and retail sales will all negatively impact every facet of Vancouver investment and development activity.

And that could just be Dix’s first term….

Despite the Bank of Canada’s continued warning that interest rates should rise in the next couple of years, it is now suggesting that a move is “less imminent” due to slower household credit growth. According to BMO: “Modest growth, below-target inflation (0.8% in December), tighter credit rules, easy Fed policy, and a strong loonie argue against a rate hike. We expect the overnight rate to stay at 1% until the spring of 2014, before rising gradually to a more neutral 3½ % in 2016.”  Likewise the bank’s forecast for bond yields is a rise of 100 to 150bps over the next 18-24 months.

This indicates that barring a shock to the system, 5-year money for commercial mortgages will continue to be readily available at near historic lows in the near term, with spreads of 200 to 200 basis points coming in around or under 4.00%.

Source: Bank of Canada

In Metrotown, demand for new condo product appears to have quieted down somewhat over the past several months. But that’s not stopping developers and investors, who are betting on the success of this town centre area over the long-term.

The latest example came in December with sale of 5895 Barker Avenue, a potential tower redevelopment site.

There are now six 35+ storey tower projects under construction in the area, primarily in the RM-5 zone which allows a higher density. These include:

• Metroplace, 343 units by Intracorp.
• The Met, 295 units by Concord Pacific.
• Station Square (Phase 1), 269 units by Anthem/Beedie.
• Silver, 284 units by Intracorp.
• Moda, 249 units by Polygon.
• Sovereign, 202 units, by Bosa.

There are also an additional 2,000+ units in various stages of planning, including an additional 930 units at Station Square (phase 2, consisting of 35 and 57 storey towers) is planned to be released in the near future), as well as other projects planned by Polygon, BlueSky Properties, Boffo, Concord and Intracorp.

A number of apartment buildings that are currently zoned RM-3 have been selling to investors that see upside and future redevelopment potential. See below a list of recent sales. Apartments without immediate redevelopment potential generally trade at $170,000 to $180,000 per unit in this area. RM-5 zoned apartment properties that can be redeveloped as towers often trade for higher values (based on land value).

In addition, Ivanhoe Cambridge is nearing halfway completion of its Metrotower 3, the first new office project built in the area in several years, which speaks to the ongoing potential of the area not solely as a bedroom community.

Metrotown has long been viewed as Burnaby’s true town centre, and despite activity in the other designated ‘town centres’ such as Brentwood and Edmonds. Metrotown is continuing to show strong valuations for both development sites and existing income producing properties.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver has released their January 2013 stats. Generally, the market is showing continued signs of slowing, with both listings and sales down from 2012. The sales-to-active-listings ratio is currently at 10.2 per cent, in buyers territory. Some other highlights:

• Sales of condos reached 576 in January 2013, a decline of 12.3% compared to the 657 sales in January 2012, and a decrease of 19.2% compared to the 713 sales in January 2011.
• The total number of properties currently listed for sale  is 13,246, a 5.6% increase compared to January 2012 and a 4.5% decline compared to December 2012. This is the fourth consecutive month that overall home listings have declined.
• Single family prices are down 3.1% year over year (YoY). Vancouver Westside is down 7.5% during the same period.
• Condo prices are down 2.9% YoY. Richmond is down 5.2% during the same period.

Source: REBGV.

Colliers’ Q4 2012 retail report shows that the Metro Vancouver retail leasing market sustained healthy growth heading into 2013. Notable highlights from the Colliers retail report.:

• From a leasing perspective, there was a spike in activity with many international, national and eclectic retailers looking for space. This is evident through the vacancy rate decreasing to 3.5% this quarter from 3.9% in the second quarter of 2012.
• The most notable changes in vacancy were in Squamish decreasing from 7.1 to 3.3 percent; Chilliwack decreasing from 10.9 to 9.3 percent; North Delta decreasing from 5.9 to 3.6 percent; and Richmond decreasing from 6.2 to 4.7 percent.
• Both transactional sales volume and deal velocity maintained a steady pace through the last quarter of 2012. From the fourth quarter of 2011 to the end of the third quarter of 2012, 125 transactions closed in the improved retail property category (for properties valued over $1 million).
• Harbour Centre unveiled plans for a multi-million dollar redevelopment of the landmark Harbour Centre building in Downtown Vancouver. In the spring of 2013, they will embark on an extensive redevelopment of the food court, a refresh of the lower level common area, and a newly revitalized streetscape of the complex.